Ask HN: What could happen if Russia adopts BTC as a currency?

I guess that would be the death of BTC.

Russia could adopt BTC as a reserve currency and issue a digital ruble CBDC on top of it.

If they don’t do it, another country eventually will.

The premise doesn't make a lot of sense.

> monetary sanctions because they are in EUR or USD

Yes, because that's what the contracts specified as a currency. Russia uses the ruble as a currency, which is not censored, it's just not 'in demand'. Adopting BTC how? Do you think Germany et al would be willing to pay for oil/gas in bitcoin when the contracts already specify a currency? Or adopt BTC internally? Like all the babushkas fighting in line for sugar would need to have crypto wallets now?

Also, wallets of Russians could be denied transactions.

Also, BTC is small enough to be manipulable by an alliance of state actors if push comes to shove.

Nothing and they won't because bitcoin is not stable enough it can still be manipulated you still don't know if a giant amount of bitcoins are lost or just held by an unknown entity. No, sane central bank would ever adopt bitcoin. It might be a cryptocurrency in the future but it will not be bitcoin.

The market cap of Bitcoin is still small enough to be manipulated, and to swing wildly. For large trades you need massive liquidity, and Bitcoin’s liquidity can’t handle taking on all of Russian finance overnight - not to mention that no broker is likely ballsy enough to facilitate such a deal.

Basing your economy on a deflationary highly volatile hyper-speculative product, what can go wrong?

There are many types of cryptocurrencies and the only thing Bitcoin has got going for it is being one of the first, and the drawbacks many and well documented. An ad-hoc crypto with not as many shortcomings as Bitcoin would be better suited, if one really needs to go crypto.

BTC is censurable.

Wallets of known russian accounts could be tracked and made illegal to do business with, and the wallets those accounts touch.