>>> [Prediction markets] are not supposed to be self fulfilling prophecies. Right? And certainly the prediction market itself should not be the insiders.

We've thrown out all the rules. Why can't the prediction market be a self-fulfilling prophecy? Why can't the market outcome be decided by insiders?

What matters is what the incentives are. I say the incentives here are for you to point us to the most useful database and argue for it. That helps us.

Our incentive as insiders is to be truthful about our choice, because we want to incentivize you to help us choose a database.

There is a lot of evidence that prediction markets work best when they are inside markets.

Yes there are problems with that!