Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice (opens in new tab)

I assume that behind the scenes, negotiations are probably happening, and such negotiations probably involve the payment of money's or other considerations for China to take one or other position...

For example, Russia might say "we will sell you oil at 10% below market rate for the next 50 years if you join the war on our side".

My summary of TFA:

Putin made a grave mistake and cannot win without China’s direct assistance.

Putin’s actions have strengthened US stature and position globally, as well as illustrating the importance of NATO. This presumably is exactly the opposite of what Putin desired.

China could gain influence and power by helping Russia, but at the cost of international relations. More importantly, it would still be a gamble.

Without China’s help, Putin will fail one way or another.

China could instead stand with the rest of the world. This would more quickly end the current conflict, and it would make China a more significant international partner. This is the better option.

I read the whole piece and my take-away was - China, being very self-interested, will drop Putin at the first sign he's really losing. They need to decide fast and are very split, but it will happen sometime within the next two weeks.

This piece is getting a lot of attention on western blob sphere because it's "China's Chernobyl" tier fantasy thinking analysis by one of the few pro-west voices in PRC analysis circles. Obviously the piece got censored right away. Like Ren Zhiqiang / Cai Xia, former got purged, latter had to escape to west and now works for lol Hudson Institute copypasting neolib positions. Important to note unlike west where blob expertise i.e. think tank / NGOs has much larger impact on actual policy than in PRC where there's parallel set of internal CCP expertise to draw from. Recent interviews from western China-hands who still have some connection with PRC counterparts (i.e. track 1.5/2/3 diplomacy) after two years of muted people-to-people contact due to covid travel have overwhelming concluded PRC decision makers are hardened their stance that US after Trump/Biden is systematically incapable of being light on PRC again. There's no hope for rapprochement. Hu's analysis that turns every dice roll wildly pro-west certainly won't reach politburo and if it did, his concluding line will certainly elicit a chuckle:

> As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

Believing PRC should (and can) improve relations with US is medically retarded at this point. Let alone "surely win international praise". And to do so freely without any concessions in return knowing full well a contained RU means PRC is next on the chopping block. If West want PRC's help, start by lifting tariffs, removing sanctions, selling EUV machines, stop arming TW. The fact that US has continued pressure on PRC over TW, EU still jerks about IndoPac, while having talks with sanctioned countries like VZ to release oil means there's no point adopting "mainstream" / west position that's actually not mainstream considering more than half world's population are sitting out (including most of ASEAN). Currently PRC has no interest picking sides, and if it had to, it would pick turning east Europe into a prolonged quagmire behind the scenes because EU foreign policy was shifting anti PRC pre UKR anyway. If UKR is the start of a "world [that] is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century", PRC would opt for changes that makes LIO weaker not stronger.

It would be interesting if someone could link to more policy discussions that happen China! Drop them here!

I've always wondered what the possibility of China just annexing Russian Siberia in the event their nuclear command is disrupted from civil war or whatever. You can't just have two autocratic superpowers sharing borders without some type of friction

The Blitzkrieg has become a quagmire. Had the Blitzkrieg succeeded, Vlad would have been able to present a fait accompli to the world, endure some more years of sanctions and the world would move on.

Pretty much what he pulled off in Chechnya, North Ossetia, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk.

Here we see the Chinese seeing the West has firmly turned against Putin and that China will be better off disavowing themselves from Putin.

The article impresses me as a dispassionate summary of the possible outcomes.

If you see the chinese yuan dropping in coming days, that's your sign....

8 is lucky in Chinese numerology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_numerology#Eight

4+4 = 8

"4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West."

"4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. "

I think it is in China's best interests to set Putin aside and let peace and trade flow again. Ukraine goes free and democratic and Russian can make it's own way.