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0 pointsvimax4y ago0 comments

My guess is two reasons:

  He vastly underestimated Ukrainian resistance

And

  Ukrainian resistance has been supported by Western intelligence and weapons

Putin's day 1 plan was to seize most of the airfields and assassinate the president. These were attempted by trained forces and could have worked. The Ukrainians managed to stop them all. I'm sure these included cyber attacks we haven't heard about.

After that the Ukrainians have had remarkable success in targeting Russian logistics efforts.

Few people were expecting such a fierce Ukrainian resistance. That is by far Putin's biggest miscalculations. Even had things gone his way, it's clear now he'd be in for a long insurgency that he wasn't anticipating.

Putin has made many poor decisions and should have been able to overcome them by force to meet many of his objectives. But, the Ukrainians have had the intelligence and tools to amplify his mistakes into the clusterfuck we're seeing.

I'm sure Russian morale is low and there were some poor logistics, but it seems exaggerated in the news.

Putin still has most of his combat forces available and estimates I've heard are he can sustain the attack for several more weeks.

0 comments

moistly4y ago

And

    Yes men and fearful underlings lied about the real state of affairs regarding preparedness, quality of equipment, training, enthusiasm, expenditures, etc.

And

    Russia is corrupt to the core. Funding for training, equipment, maintenance, planning: stolen.

vimaxOP4y ago

That seems to be contributing, but the puzzling thing is the lack of those problems in recent Russian conflicts in Syria, Crimea, etc...

How did their preparedness degrade so much in only a few years with no indication of Russian military bureaucratic breakdown from the outside?

I'd like to see satellite images of the Russian troop buildup on the border and in Belarus and see if there's any signs of the incompetence and lack of coordination we're seeing in the field.

moistly4y ago

A little cheat here, a little theft there, grow it like the parable of grains of rice on a checkerboard.

Next thing you know, the cheap seals in the bearings of your wheels leak because someone who was supposed to ensure QA was being applied to incoming parts pocketed the money instead. And your soldiers are freezing because someone else didn’t get them winter kit.

The corrupt leader has a dozen corrupt ministers who have a dozen corrupt public servants each managing a dozen corrupt upper management… until eventually Wade in Procurement pockets a few thousand dollarydoos by not paying employee Enum to test the seals for Quality Standard X… and ditto for the other dozen(s) under Wade’s department.

As the corruption grows, it becomes more blatant. The Wades trust one another less. Start watching their back. Become more siloed. Underlings start noticing the corruption from above. It starts to infect the workplace… right down to the guy who installs the seals and notices they’re not as beefy as the previous shipment, but doesn’t say anything to his manager because he’ll just catch shit. The guy who was runs the Personal Deploy Kit checklist ordered heavy mittens, got wool fingered gloves. It’s career-limiting to get that corrected. Boys aren’t invading anyway, it’s just exercises.

Unchecked criminality grows exponentially as it goes downchain.

moistly4y ago

This might interest you: https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/15026739525728...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsvimax4y ago0 comments

My guess is two reasons:

  He vastly underestimated Ukrainian resistance

And

  Ukrainian resistance has been supported by Western intelligence and weapons

After that the Ukrainians have had remarkable success in targeting Russian logistics efforts.

I'm sure Russian morale is low and there were some poor logistics, but it seems exaggerated in the news.

Putin still has most of his combat forces available and estimates I've heard are he can sustain the attack for several more weeks.

0 comments

moistly4y ago

And

    Yes men and fearful underlings lied about the real state of affairs regarding preparedness, quality of equipment, training, enthusiasm, expenditures, etc.

And

    Russia is corrupt to the core. Funding for training, equipment, maintenance, planning: stolen.

vimaxOP4y ago

That seems to be contributing, but the puzzling thing is the lack of those problems in recent Russian conflicts in Syria, Crimea, etc...

How did their preparedness degrade so much in only a few years with no indication of Russian military bureaucratic breakdown from the outside?

I'd like to see satellite images of the Russian troop buildup on the border and in Belarus and see if there's any signs of the incompetence and lack of coordination we're seeing in the field.

moistly4y ago

A little cheat here, a little theft there, grow it like the parable of grains of rice on a checkerboard.

Unchecked criminality grows exponentially as it goes downchain.

moistly4y ago

This might interest you: https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/15026739525728...

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse