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0 pointsrurp4y ago0 comments

It's also worth emphasizing that we're basically seeing the best version of Russia's military. They've spent years preparing for this current war and had total control over when and where the fighting would start.

Having to scramble for an unexpected war is 10x harder and more complicated.

Large militaries are also very expensive. Right now it's looking like Russia is going to have a very hard time funding their current apparratus.

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3 comments · 1 top-level

TillE4y ago· 2 in thread

I've seen various theories about their failures on the ground, but apparently they still haven't established air superiority over any significant fraction of Ukraine, which is incredible to me.

I have little doubt that they'll eventually defeat Ukraine's military forces if that's the goal, but a serious world power should have run them over in a matter of days.

brabel4y ago

There are many reasons why this is happening IMO:

- Russia is using a small fraction of its firepower, according to expert reports I've seen.

- The reason, contrary to what we may all think in the West, may be that they are actually trying to avoid looking too evil with the whole world watching. Could they throw a tsar bomb in Kiev and be done with it? Probably, but the rest of the world wouldn't like that at all.

- They were unsure how the West would respond, and may believe that military retaliation was a possibility, so they decided to keep their big guns at home and "probe" Ukraine more slowly.

- They may be intentionally "hiding" their capabilities in order to keep an element of surprise when it really needs it (in Ukraine or if the fight escalates, with Western powers).

- Alternatively, of course, they may be just incompetent, which for some reason is what the West is thinking. Maybe that's what they want you to think?

jotm4y ago

You are right, and apparently people don't like the uncomfortable truth. Russia could bomb the shit out of Ukraine. But they are avoiding civilian casualties.

Yes, I know they're still killing people, but it's not a main goal of this invasion - if it was, they'd be shelling indiscriminately from a distance, something they are capable of.

If their plan worked, to quickly come in and replace the UA government, I'm pretty sure no one would give a shit. "Just another day in Eastern Europe". A few sanctions and move on.

Thanks to Ukrainian resistance, which I believe took everyone by surprise, Europe and the US actually started some serious action against Russia.

Their ground forces are definitely incompetent and underequipped, imo.

I hope it doesn't escalate.

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