1. 25% chance for literal anything at all, sure, why not.
2. 66% reduction from vaccination plus booster (but requires booster)
3. 50% reduction from being asymptomatic early on and then this went up later, combined with asymptomatic cases not being quite totally safe
4. 50% reduction from Omicron only, on precautionary principle
5. 50% reduction for sticking around
6. 0% reduction from the second sticking around reduction because I’m worried about 7. accidentally double-counting somewhere and want to be safe
7. 60% reduction for ‘as bad as all that’ based among other things on my survey
8. 25% reduction for misattribution to give benefit of the doubt
9. 0% impact of good health
That gets us back to a 0.2% chance of Long Covid conditional on first infection, and less than that less for all future ones combined because of immune strengthening.
This quote in particular seems rather ironic in light of the current labor shortage: "Do we see evidence of the types of sweeping changes we’d expect to see if several percent of people are suddenly unable to work? No, we don’t."
