Yes. I was an L6 manager and was put into Pivot (the umbrella process that surrounds PIP), which I managed to beat. I saw two other SDMs in that org successfully PIP'd out in the same ~18 month period. I'm sure there is some magical level where you're "calibrated" but not put into Pivot, but I suspect it is pretty high up.

I would love to know this from the inside. My gut says: no.

I've never seen a manager face any sort of criticism. They just lead with impunity. Often they are promoted for miserably failed projects because they took a risk, and in large tech companies with big cash cushions, risks are worth it.

In my experience most of the time managers just maintain status quo. Run standup, do 1:1s, hire, and pass on orders from above. They keep their jobs forever.

Yes they can be. Managers also get evaluated the same way. But replacing a manager is usually more hassle, so it's not as common to push them out to meet your URA quota. I've seen it happen once, and they re-org'ed and abolished the entire team (distributed everyone to other teams).

Failing to meet URA targets is one sure way to get antagonize superiors.