I'm getting FOMO as a young engineer in deep learning/computer vision at a small European company. My plan was to stay at my interesting job with average pay until I stop growing, then hopefully jump to a company that pays better when I feel like it. But what if the market shifts and salaries go down?
Is there any indication of what the job market will become for tech employees in the next few years?
Keep in mind that when everybody gets paid a lot, everything is expensive. That's the real way that high salaries return to the norm: everything else catches up. Bay Area is already the most expensive part of the U.S; you might get paid $200-300K, but taxes eat half that, rents are $2.5-3K/month, mortgage payments are $10K+, daycare is about $2-3K, restaurant meals are $30, etc.
Not sure how that compares to your country - if you're coming from Eastern Europe you're going to get sticker shock, but a lot of central/western European regions (eg. Zurich, Paris, Scandinavia) are already there. It's a different type of expensive though: in general consumer goods, food, housing, and gas cost more in Europe, but healthcare, education, and childcare cost more in the U.S.
The high expenses of the bay area are a policy choice by the local and state government to disallow investment. As such everyone is competing for the same old housing stock and office space that cost a 1/3rd of what it does now years ago. In effect, house owners and landlords are appropriating tech profits to themselves.
I hope the banning of single home zoning in California helps to alleviate this issue.
Simply calculate it and look at the effective tax rate.
Here https://smartasset.com/taxes/california-paycheck-calculator
And use the Total Compensation data from https://levels.fyi
You are taxed on RSUs the same as salary.
Unless there are significant opportunities I'd be missing out on by not leaving right now. That's why I asked.
If the current situation seems stable, I'd take it easy and enjoy the next couple years without the stress of having to move soon. I'm not that keen on turning my life upside down right now unless there's a significant gain to make. (The last few years were stressful so I'd like to take it easy for a while.)
I'm not sure why you asked this, but I can assure you I'm not trying to waste anyone's time, and I have a rational reason for asking.
> I'd double my job-searching efforts, to have to option of leaving within a year or two.
Job searching doesn't work that way - if it goes well you'll end up with a bunch of offers that you'll need to accept or reject within some time frame; you don't get to bank all the offers you get and use them in two years.
It's always good to be employable, have relevant skills, be able to interview well etc. - this applies to good and bad markets.
If youre making decent pay & enjoy your job that sounds like a dream.
Enjoy your life, work isn't everything. Bay Area isn't that nice. You are likely able to live somewhere better (or can move somewhere nicer). I regret moving away from family & friends (albeit I do like the area I'm in now). Spend time with them.
You won't be worrying about your paycheck on your deathbed, but rather whether you lived a fulfilling life. I am certain more pay for less interesting work doesn't match that description ;)
Money for the sake of it isn't the goal, it's more about being able to finance projects I find fulfilling.
Be careful with following that thinking trap. If you already think you're not making enough now, you'll fall down the rabbit hole of lifestyle creep where many high paying engineers struggle to get out of.
As far as the job market is concerned, I wouldn't worry at all.
A few caveats:
1. Give up any expectation of owing a home (to be precise, a single-family home with a yard) in Silicon Valley proper.
2. If you want to follow the conventional path of marrying and raising children, then marry a someone who can pull the same compensation as you (software developer, doctor, lawyer at white-shoe firm). You can't raise kids on one income here (you can't send them to private school, for instance) unless you are absolutely certain that the public school system will work out for your child.
3. Be prepared to be very lonely if you do not have a friends' circle already established here. It is difficult to make friends and connections and keep up because of the all-consuming nature of work and distances involved (e.g., Palo Alto to San Francisco takes 1 hour minimum, so expect to spend 2 hours simply on driving to and from your friends in the City or down in the Peninsula or South Bay).
4. If you are old (i.e., 35+), then you will have more difficulty getting into good jobs. Ageism is rampant and job interview processes are geared towards young or unattached people who can spend a great deal of time on tech interview prep on an ongoing basis. As changing jobs regularly (2 years is now considered the norm) is the only good way of keeping your comp at market level, expect to be in interview mode for at least half your tenure at every job (assuming your tenure is 2 years).
That's an absolutely prohibitive cost, and not how I want to spend my 20s and 30s. Thank you for mentioning it.
I'm not sure the high salaries are worth everything you mentioned. My current area is a bit like that, but at least the big cities are closer. Do you work there? How do people deal with the isolation?
People deal with the isolation by taking up hobbies and joining affinity groups that are associated with them. For this there is a lot of opportunity.
I should also point out that high salaries will be eaten up completely by the sky high costs of everything in the Bay Area. It’s only equity windfalls, if properly invested, that will truly get you into a good place financially. A lot of people decide that a few years of this will net them enough money to attain their goals someplace cheaper (the Sun Belt, for instance), so they jump into the rat race with the understanding that it is finite and transient.
Real issue is brain drain from other industries.
E.g. potential doctors and lawyers deciding that being a programmer has way better ROI than all the years and debt involved with medical school or law school
I’m not saying it’s good or bad, it just is what happens. Larger corporations sometimes will seek out cheaper software people in other parts of the world as those areas produce more software people.
Why not try applying for some full remote positions at FAANGs or whatever big tech employers you have in your area?
Machine learning-focused jobs at FAANG seem harder to get than regular "software engineer" ones, especially in computer vision. I don't want to stop learning by switching early to a remote coding job.
I'd be looking more at startups and corporate labs that do interesting work and don't require a PhD, but that requires skills I'm learning in my current job.
America is _very_ different from the EU. Ideally you want to be here until you get about 35 yo. And move back after that age. Compensation packages in CA are certifiably insane. Many of them don't require anything special in actual day-by-day work. Passing the interviews is the hardest part by far.
But when you get older and decide to start a family your compensation won't buy you much, from houses to decent schools. And those 44% stolen by the government become 33% with a wife and a child. And provide you with some really nice things not easily bought for money in the US.
I have heard people saying that programmers won't be necessary in such numbers for 20 years. I have personally thought that Bay Area compensation is unreal for a decade. With your DL/CV expertise you are perfectly positioned for the next 20.
In summary, treat CA as a gold rush. You come here to strike rich or die trying. There's no middle ground here.
