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There's 2 movies on 1 screen when it comes to the actual stats surrounding Covid-19, so I'm not going to argue that with you.
I'll just ask you about what's serving as the "control groups". How are, say, Amish Country PA and Florida doing? Forget any stats about "cases" you can come up with for a moment: how are normal peoples' actual lives going in places where masks and most preventative measures are less common? Are people living their lives more or less normally, or are these regions wastelands of disease and death with survivors roaming the streets begging for medical attention?