If you're looking for hard data, there was some, but it was more of a logic based risk assessment. I deduced, for me, that the best bet was to avoid the disease as much as possible, and not risk a novel medicine for something that was low risk anyways.

Risk of me having major complications from Covid: Very, very low. Less than a hundredth of a percent, IIRC.

Rate of drugs recalled by FDA: Shockingly high.

Rate of fraud and abuse by large pharmaceutical companies: Also very high.

Effectiveness of the vaccine: I have an admittedly non-expert level understanding of statistics, but I did not agree with the efficacy analysis from the initial trials. I assume some modeling was applied, but I found that to be rather opaque. IIRC again - it was about 5k ea of active/placebo, and on the order magnitude of about 100 cases for placebo and 50 for active treatment.