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0 pointsRetric4y ago0 comments

We are currently sitting at at total of over 800,000 COVID deaths in the US and 1,500 COVID deaths per day, which is roughly where it’s been since September 1st. That’s approximately an additional half a million dead people per year.

So yes the vaccine has already saved million of lives, but I sure hope that this is not the new normal this winter or we are going to cross 1 million deaths fairly soon.

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PaulDavisThe1st4y ago

Based on excess mortality numbers, it seems fairly likely that we're already over a million deaths that would not have happened without COVID19.

refurb4y ago

What will be interesting is to see the long term mortality rate. My hypothesis is we’re just accelerating the deaths of people over 70 years old (70%+ of the cases).

If that’s true, you’d see a decrease in mortality over the next few years. Covid is basically doing what the flu does every winter (but on a larger scale) - it pushes people close to death over the edge.

koonsolo4y ago

This already happened in Belgium. When you look at the mortality rate per age group at https://statbel.fgov.be/en/about-statbel/what-we-do/visualis... , with age 85+, you can see the big spike in 2020, and in 2021 a big decrease compared to the 4 previous years.

Less so with age group 75-84, but still visible.

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akomtu4y ago

We shouldnt forget that something like 80% of them were already old people with a variety of health issues.

HPsquared4y ago

It'd be interesting to look at "years lost" or something similar ("quality-adjusted life years").

RetricOP4y ago

“Old people” where much better about vaccination and isolation so the 80:20 age dropped over time. Currently well over 1/4 of total death are under 65 which is significantly different than when COVID first showed up. When you look at current data it’s even more shocking the under 55 population is making up a rapidly increasing share of total deaths presumably due to relative vaccination rates.

For example the first omnicron death in the US was in their 50’s that had already had COVID but never got vaccinated. By many metrics that’s old but their still well below average life expectancy.

throwntoday4y ago

And all of the young "healthy" people who died had comorbidities like obesity and diabetws or some congenital issues unknown to them.

zuminator4y ago

This is just a no true Scotsman argument in disguise. To wit, anyone who is young and healthy won't die from corona, therefore anyone young who died from it wasn't "really" healthy and had "unknown" issues.

You can make that argument with any illness, and people do. E.g., you can't get cancer if you eat healthy, oh, you got cancer? You must not have been eating the right diet for your body type.

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onecommentman4y ago

The most vulnerable “comorbidity” subpopulation rarely mentioned in popular social media are the immunocompromised

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/blog/immunocompromised-...

The title itself suggests the immunocompromised are acknowledged as an overlooked group.

The CDC has some discussion at

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola...

From the link above, the immunocompromised are a reservoir for the virus for a longer time, since it takes longer for the body to clear the virus. So certainly worth the extra attention, from an epidemiological standpoint if nothing else.

My sense is the immunocompromised would know the COVID response drill from all the other infectious agents they have to deal with so, maybe, they are more careful anyway, but…

The puzzling thing is (from the Johns Hopkins link) there are 15M immunocompromised in the US.

Which does beg the question: if COVID is truly a superbug, two years on, why aren’t they (the immunocompromised) dead yet?

A death rate of only 6%, over two years, for this highly vulnerable immunocompromised population would explain all the US deaths from COVID.

How can COVID be simultaneously

(1) the Plague of the Century and,

(2) two years on, also leave 94% to 99+% of the most vulnerable alive (depending on your assumption on the percentage of symptomatic/hospitalized/fatal COVID cases who are/were immunocompromised)?

Just another COVID “mystery”? Seems a bit odd.

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hsbauauvhabzb4y ago

Had corona not of existed, would they still be dead?

dTal4y ago

One third of Americans are clinically obese alone. Half are over 40. What percentage of people actually fit your "young and fully healthy" criteria? Are we meant to be comforted by this?

Seriously - what's the subtext here?

oneoff7864y ago

It would be surprising if we didn’t cross 1 million deaths this winter.

tim3334y ago

Omicron may actually help deaths taper off a bit quicker than otherwise.

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