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0 pointsTalanes4y ago0 comments

Asking politicians to not over-estimate exponential growth is like asking water not to be wet.

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snth4y ago

Isn't the usual complaint that people (politicians included) _under_estimate exponential growth?

Depends where you are, some parts of australia have certainly been fairly conservative. Opinions aside, they certainly estimated on the upper bounds of severity much more than the US. I personally am grateful that the aus gov did this, saving countless lives in the process.

lb04y ago

Not understanding what you are both getting at ... the situation has maybe changed now.

But before, here at least, it was repeatedly underestimating the in the aftermath clearly visible exponential growth, exactly as the r factor is calculated? Which scientist/MD doesn't understand there is a saturation, in the extreme even schoolers understand you cannot have more than 100% infected.

Yes, at some point it is becoming logistic, but the previous waves were not about getting anywhere there, but going from 0.1% to 1% or more, and there it was truly exponential growth and overwhelming the health care system, what the start of that logistic curve is about..?!

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