Down Detector doesn't really detect anything other than people saying "Is [service X] down?" on Twitter, which does mean that Xbox Live appears to be permanently offline if you believe them because the typical user for Xbox Live will declare anything from tripping over their ethernet cable to a tornado levelling their house preventing a connection to mean Xbox Live is down.

lol imagine if azure was just AWS in the backend

For the core services? Definitely. But do we really know that some 3rd party API which doesn't fail gracefully isn't causing this?