If this happens I can technically stay on the original protocol, but that would be rather pointless if a sufficient majority abandons it.
The only real problem with that is that with a small hash rate, bitcoin can be attacked more easily.
If bitcoin is the monetary backbone for many nations, they will subsidize miners to maintain the balance of power. That is the actual scenario that I'm optimistically predicting.
If bitcoin isn't the monetary backbone for many nations, by then, then it's probably a failure, and should probably be allowed to die.
It's also very possible that transactions fees alone actually will be sufficient to support a high enough amount of hash power to secure the network.
I have to admit that I have no idea how much work is actually needed to secure the network. My point of view is that the current rate of energy expenditure outweighs whatever benefit Bitcoin does or could provide to society. But if this rate is a transient result of still-significant minting going on, things could definitely look different in the future.
Do you know of any analyses on how much work really has to be continuously expended in order for Bitcoin to remain reasonably secure at a given market capitalization?
Each nation would love to be able to manipulate the supply itself—why not, if people will let you get away with it?—but the fact that other nations can't do the same could be seen as a feature.
Still plenty of scaling left in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Presumably if the price went down by a substantial chunk and stayed down for a while, the hashpower would also decrease, and so the difficulty would also decrease.
Also, if electricity prices went up, or if CO2 emissions were taxed, then hashpower would decrease, and the difficulty would go down in turn.
As for the rest... so what? It uses a lot of electricity and there is some pollution---but a lot of bitcoin mining is done with hydro or geothermal (and will be nuclear if bitcoin continues to grow), so, so what about some pollution?
So there's a simple question: how much value do we get out of this tech per CO2e it emits and per ton of e-waste it creates. And AFAICT the answer is: not enough to keep tolerating it in a time where humanity as a whole is seriously worried about climate change for the first time ever.
If you can magically move _all_ the miners to sites with excess renewable electricity and permanently slash the hash rate by 99.9% then maybe it can be tolerated. Until then I would welcome more China-style crackdowns on mining activity across the world.
Mining doesn’t use a fixed amount of energy. As it becomes more economical more people will mine.
Niagara Falls is not what I had in mind. There is lots of untapped hydro power in extremely remote parts Canada where nobody lives, for example.