Timing the market is a hopeless task. We do not know yet if our treasuries will make an attempt to wean themselves off cheap credit or not.
I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot.
I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
What precisely is going to stop it? Where else is the safety-seeking money going to go? Even the periodic threat of a gratuitous default doesn't rattle US bond prices.
The U.S. might be a special case, with the dollar being a reserve currency.
Italian lira was weak and Italians used to buy a lot of property. Until today, an average Italian family has much more real estate than an average German family.
Polish zloty went into a tailspin in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1995, they decided to start again and remove four zeros off the new zloty. IDK what happened to all the debt held in non-zlotys.
