undefined | Better HN

0 pointsAnimalMuppet4y ago0 comments

There's work, and then there's work.

A polio vaccine means that I won't get polio. A rubella vaccine means I won't get rubella. A Covid vaccine means that I'm only 10-40% as likely to get Covid. (Chime in with more accurate numbers if you have them.) And it means that I'm less likely to get a severe case.

That's not nothing. It's significant, both to me as an individual, and for society-wide epidemiological reasons. But it's not the same as the other vaccines. "One of these is not like the others."

And, yeah, I might get a one-in-a-million breakthrough case for polio or rubella. One of these things still isn't like the others.

So: The Covid vaccine works, but it doesn't work - not in the same way that other vaccines do. (In the same way, the flu vaccine works, but doesn't work.)

0 comments

mcbits4y ago

Where Covid vaccination could work (remains to be seen) is if, combined with other mitigation measures, it brings the effective reproduction rate down low enough and for long enough to eradicate the virus. Problem is, the long tail can last for years, and every time the goal has been within grasp, people would see the falling numbers and assume that meant it was already over. Vaccination makes that less of a problem.

Polio and MMR vaccines aren't 99.9999% effective, either. More like 80-99%. A breakthrough is extremely unlikely because you're not likely to be exposed to those viruses at all anymore. But it took decades to reach this point.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse