> A major economy defaulting is possible (I put no limits on the ability of Congress to bungle things)
Arguably, even maximal Congressional bungling (at least, absent positive action to force a default, which doesn't seem politically possible) won't make a default necessary, as there are several no-default courses possible without Cobgressional action (“mint the coin”, ignore debt limit due to conflict with mandated fiscal actions, ignore debt limit as unconstitutional)