>You're gambling that other nuclear-armed powers will believe you that it's conventionally-armed and not heading at them
yep, and when this http://www.panoramio.com/photo/13572904 sees such a highly maneuverable vehicle flying 20 Machs over Europe you don't think it would cause questions that must be answered during next few minutes? At least in case of ICBM it is clear where it flies to once it launched.