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0 pointsrhino3694y ago0 comments

WW1 made perverse sense when viewed in the mindset that existed in Europe from the early gunpowder age to the end of the Napoleonic wars. They just didn't account for the rise of nationalism, total war, and industrialization.

China understands that wars of expansion rarely have worked since WWII. They know a single US submarine could cripple world semiconductor manufacturing for months.

But I agree, they might try it for non-economic reasons like reunification. Or maybe cause they think--rightly or wrongly--that the USA would cower and wouldn't support Taiwan at all. Wars can be caused by miscalculation too.

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5 comments · 2 top-level

mschuster914y ago· 2 in thread

> China understands that wars of expansion rarely have worked since WWII.

coughs in Crimea, Hongkong and arguably Israel, Syria and Turkey

Wars of expansion can and do still work, all it needs is for the rest of the world to stand aside just as they did in 1933-45 - and the signs don't look good, given that the reaction for Russian and Chinese annexation projects was nothing more than a couple ineffective sanctions.

rhino369OP4y ago

Crimea is the best success, but its because it really more of an annexation of a population that is ethnically same as the annexing nation.

I don't want to give what Russia did legitimacy, but its closer to self-determination than most liberal internationalist (the IR theory, I don't mean US liberals) will give it credit for. Crimea was only part of Ukraine due to the dictates of the Soviet Union and had only been part of it since 1954. Then again, maybe I'm overestimating how strong Taiwanese nationalism is.

In places like Syria, you see what happens when different ethnicities fight over territory. It's a bloody mess and everyone is worse for it.

Israel is in a different position since they really just want the land and not really the economy and people on the land. They are ethnically cleansing and then populating the area with settlers.

I was going to say that is unique in this age, but its really not all that different from what China did in Tibet or is doing in Xinjiang.

gpt54y ago

What really diminished since WWII is real ethnical cleansing. And I mean by the definition of "forced removal of ethnic, racial, and religious groups from a given area". What China did was move in their people, and what Israel did is curve out the areas with low existing population and called them their own.

This, together with the democratic nature of the western world has led to a place where annexation of an area becomes infeasible for a place with a large opposing population (which is why Israel is not officially annexing the west bank).

syshum4y ago· 1 in thread

>>that the USA would cower and wouldn't support Taiwan at all.

At most that would only last 1 election cycle, so they would have to unify and hold it fast, very fast. Any Administration that would allow China to take over Taiwan would surrender (rightfully) all their political power and be ousted by a landslid the next election

rhino369OP4y ago

I think you'd be surprised how quickly we'd get over that. Regardless, if we abandoned Taiwan and it fell, there is pretty much no chance we'd invade several years later.

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5 comments · 2 top-level

mschuster914y ago· 2 in thread

> China understands that wars of expansion rarely have worked since WWII.

coughs in Crimea, Hongkong and arguably Israel, Syria and Turkey

rhino369OP4y ago

Crimea is the best success, but its because it really more of an annexation of a population that is ethnically same as the annexing nation.

In places like Syria, you see what happens when different ethnicities fight over territory. It's a bloody mess and everyone is worse for it.

Israel is in a different position since they really just want the land and not really the economy and people on the land. They are ethnically cleansing and then populating the area with settlers.

I was going to say that is unique in this age, but its really not all that different from what China did in Tibet or is doing in Xinjiang.

gpt54y ago

syshum4y ago· 1 in thread

>>that the USA would cower and wouldn't support Taiwan at all.

rhino369OP4y ago

I think you'd be surprised how quickly we'd get over that. Regardless, if we abandoned Taiwan and it fell, there is pretty much no chance we'd invade several years later.

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