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0 pointshash8724y ago0 comments

> With this stunt, the US gets Australia to abandon its former policy of independence from the US, but basically sets back its efforts to mobilize Europe against the Chinese by at least 5 years

I think the US is pretty reasonably concluding that France, and Europe overall, are not going to 'mobilize' against China regardless. We are not even two years from the EU & China signing their Comprehensive Agreement on Investment treaty in late 2020, which was heavily pushed by both France and Germany. It was a pretty stunning poke in the eye to America. The treaty is now apparently on ice, but I think the US clearly sees that Europe sans Britain is not going to be part of an anti-China alliance. So why bother appeasing the Europeans? What do we get out of it?

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4 comments · 2 top-level

throwaway2102224y ago· 2 in thread

> I think the US is pretty reasonably concluding that France, and Europe overall, are not going to 'mobilize' against China regardless.

Correct - by ommission.

After the UK, the USA, China, and France all squirmed out of their various signed, macho commitments to the Ukraine [1], I doubt anyone is turning up on match-day in Taiwan.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

fmajid4y ago

Ukraine is worthless, like Afghanistan. Taiwan controls the world supply of advanced microprocessors, and is the most valuable strategic prize of all.

throwaway2102224y ago

> Taiwan controls the world supply of advanced microprocessors,

If I'm to be bet on this: the USA will put TMSC onto cargo ships (including the staff) and take it back to to the USA long before they get involved in a drawn out shooting war.

And, when that happens, Taiwan is - as you so brutaly pointed out - in the same boat as Ukraine.

fmajid4y ago

France had frozen out Huawei, the UK had refused to do so until US sanctions made their equipment unviable. The UK will always fall in line eventually, but until recently it had been courting China hardest of all, even more than Germany, which has at least started introducing something like CFIUS.

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4 comments · 2 top-level

throwaway2102224y ago· 2 in thread

> I think the US is pretty reasonably concluding that France, and Europe overall, are not going to 'mobilize' against China regardless.

Correct - by ommission.

After the UK, the USA, China, and France all squirmed out of their various signed, macho commitments to the Ukraine [1], I doubt anyone is turning up on match-day in Taiwan.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

fmajid4y ago

Ukraine is worthless, like Afghanistan. Taiwan controls the world supply of advanced microprocessors, and is the most valuable strategic prize of all.

throwaway2102224y ago

> Taiwan controls the world supply of advanced microprocessors,

If I'm to be bet on this: the USA will put TMSC onto cargo ships (including the staff) and take it back to to the USA long before they get involved in a drawn out shooting war.

And, when that happens, Taiwan is - as you so brutaly pointed out - in the same boat as Ukraine.

fmajid4y ago

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