undefined | Better HN

0 pointswalterbell4y ago0 comments

Reducing does not have the same scaling effect as stopping, e.g. society must continue to pay an ongoing price for mitigations. Stopping means society can move on after a one-time vaccine cost.

There are intranasal (e.g. inhaler) vaccines under development, which may provide nasal/mucosal antibodies. Until those are available, recovery from natural infection will provide both nasal/mucosal and blood/serum antibodies. This path is available to both the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

0 comments

10 comments · 3 top-level

lalaland11254y ago· 5 in thread

For things defined by exponential growth like viruses, you don't have to stop them 100%.

All you have to do is get the growth factor below 1.0 and the virus will die out as it can't infect enough people to stay alive.

nradov4y ago

There is no scientific evidence that it will be possible to get the growth factor below 1.0.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

walterbellOP4y ago

Why hasn't that happened already in countries with very high vaccine rates, like Israel?

halflife4y ago

I’m from Israel, we were in an excellent condition couple of months ago, but once the vaccination started to lose its potency we see a steep rise in infections and hospitalizations. Now that we are deep into the booster shot we see the numbers of infections and hospitalizations start to drop again.

lalaland11254y ago

Israel's vaccination rate isn't that high? They are only 60% vaccinated.

1 more reply

newbamboo4y ago

I didn’t think there were people who still believe herd immunity is possible at this point. Maybe that’s not what you’re saying?

simonh4y ago· 2 in thread

Meanwhile here in the UK, with very high vaccination rates, we've been out of lockdown for a while now, are very much getting back to normal life and have low hospitalisation rates. If that's not a 'society wide benefit' I'd like to know what is.

We may need further short tactical lockdowns, and are considering booster shots for the elderly, but the situation here is night and day compared to the US and many other countries thanks to an effective vaccination programme with broad popular support.

It's amazing to me how the political culture of the right has diverged between the US and Europe, and here in the UK particularly. For us responsible behaviour in public and prompt vaccination are conservative touchstones, not exclusively conservative of course but very much seen as not just compatible with conservatism but flowing directly from it's basic principles. What's happened to Republicanism in the US is confusing, and rather horrifying from that perspective.

jtbayly4y ago

You might want to read up on Israel before you assume it is because of the high rate of vaccination that you happen to be in a valley of infections again.

simonh4y ago

Oh we have plenty of infections, tens of thousands of cases per day, but we have much fewer deaths because infected vaccinated people rarely get sick and if they do are extremely unlikely to die.

Early this year we were seeing similar rates of new infections per day, but about a thousand people were dying every day. Nowadays the death rate is about a tenth of that, concentrated among the remaining unvaccinated population.

Israel seems to be having a similar experience, people are catching the virus but those that are vaccinated aren't dying as a result. They're introducing mask mandates and considering tactical lockdowns to try and protect the unvaccinated population. We may need to do the same, nevertheless the best way to protect people who can't be vaccinated is to vaccinate everyone who can be.

ImPostingOnHN4y ago

whether or not the "scaling effect" is the same is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does

whether or not society must continue to pay an ongoing price for mitigations is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does

whether or not society can move on after a one-time vaccine cost is irrelevant to whether or not the vaccine provides a societal benefit, which it does

the goalposts were set at "provides a societal benefit", which it does

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse