Yeah, you described it well.
Start by understanding, Mr Moderator, there is a hell of a lot of difference between public posts and private messages.
(I browse with showdead on because the volume is small on HN, and every now and again you come across people in the former category who were shadowbanned for one or a few incidents relatively far in the past, who since then seem to have acted reasonable, where it's worth pointing it out so they can appeal their ban - mostly the flagged comments or shadowbans are well deserved, though)
I would be carefuly about that.
"and if you don't give it to them they generally move on."
The craziest has lots of stuff going on. Lots of anger and hate. So if they decide, that you are their mortal enemy for shadow banning them, they might not move on.