As someone who has had both COVID (before vaccines were available) and a COVID vaccine, this reasoning seems frankly dumb as bricks.

There is uncertainty about long-term effects of both. There is no uncertainty about the short-term effects of COVID, which are magnitudes worse than the short-term effects of a vaccine. COVID for me was a multi-week flu that scared the shit out of me because I didn't know how bad it would get or if I'd live through it. I took months to get my smell/taste back, three months to get back to previous fitness levels, hair loss, and significant mental fog and memory problems. The jab was one day of tiredness and I ran a marathon two days after no problem.

I really can't fathom how anyone could put themselves and those around them at such great risk, rather than taking a vaccine.

Of course, we don't have much info on the long-term health outcomes of getting COVID, either.

It's like worrying about the long-term impact of breathing fire extinguisher powder while being engulfed by flames.

The great thing about that excuse is that the amount of information needed can be set arbitrarily. There will never be enough information available to satisfy people using this excuse. It'll just be "INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER"[1] until the end of time.

1: https://www.physics.princeton.edu/ph115/LQ.pdf

The same can be said about getting the real disease, except in that case, the “side effect” in the medium term have already been shown to be worse.

My brother had that (quite legitimate, really) concern. So he delayed vaccination. Now he has Covid. Doctors talking of amputating his toes because of blood clots. Death is not the worst thing to be feared in this.

No medical intervention is entirely without risk - the risk must be taken in context

1) Risk of potential negative long-term health outcomes from COVID-19 vaccine.

2) Risk of potential negative health outcomes (long and short term) from COVID-19 infection.

As well as

3) Risk of potential negative non-health outcomes from COVID-19 infection (social and economic, risk of infecting others, risk of overrunning ICUs)

With a proper risk analysis vaccine 100% wins for the vast majority of people and it's not even close.