It's actually between $8-12 billion now. [1]
> Yahoo & MSFT's experience as 2nd place in that market was working very hard and earning $0 profits.
This is an exaggeration though. MSFT made nearly $8 billion in revenue last year from search (mostly Bing), and the business has naturally high margins so it would be extremely surprising if it was unprofitable on an operating basis. [2] The reality is that search is so huge that it's worth competing in, even if the incumbent has 30X your market share.
[1] https://twitter.com/jowens510/status/1428416856038072321
I personally can’t see them switching any time soon, as DuckDuckGo’s search results are something between worse to terrible and I’m not sure they can do much better without collecting more data.
I would like someone to make some objective research on that.
My experience is the reverse, so I strongly suspect our reticence is just one of changing our habit more than an real thing.
I switched to DDG years ago and it took a few weeks to wean out the tendency to compare searches, usually brought on by the fear of missing out something.
I very rarely have to resort to a !g search and usually if I can't find it on DDG, I won't easily find it on google either.
I don't feel like missing out on anything and I always find what I need (and if I don't, I can't find it in other searches either).
Other platforms have some strength in some area, like Bing and Google have more tools for image searches, and it's possible that one of these is better than the others at some specific domain, like research papers or patent searches.
But after switching to DDG, all these options are still available and -at least in my case- 99%+ of my needs are met with it.
But the reverse is true too. DDG is now my default, but before, when Google didn't find something, I'd switch to DDG.
There is an implicit learning curve switching search engines. The way one crafts searches differs in subtle ways I don't understand on a conscious level.
Last I checked, DDG's search results are just Bing (aside from the infobox-type stuff which is from their own data sources), and Bing does collect data from Microsoft's browsers and toolbars https://www.wired.com/2011/02/bing-copies-google/
It's scary how the web feels much more narrower.
I think this is closer to a 50B problem than a 1B problem. Not impossible, but I don’t know anyone who has 50B that they would want to spend fighting uphill to kill google.
Apple started to ship this operation over to India 5ish years ago, and their contractors over there produce much worse results as they are not hiring professional geographers with degrees like they did stateside.
$8bn in revenue might not mean profitable. Google certainly spend a lot more than this on search and advertising, and well... software scales.
In any case, whether they make $1bn in profit, losses or something in between... This is <1% of market profits. Apple is making $8bn-$12bn, all profit, just on defaults.
We don’t know if Bing’s profitable but GP is merely saying that with the circumstances above it is an interesting market for Microsoft to pursue.
Cooperating and accepting a slice of Google's monopoly profits is far more profitable that competing would be, in all but the most bullish scenarios.
IE, MSFT would need to be outright challenging Google's 1st place position in search marketing to have a hope of earning more than Apple do by doing nothing, spending nothing, investing nothing and taking no risks.
Also, what would it take for MSFT to compete with Google in earnest? For one thing, Microsoft would need to outbid Google for such deals. They'd need to pay Apple, Telcos, and such more than Google do now.
Buying a default spot is the interesting aspect here. Google spending more than Bing's entire yearly revenue just means they want that thing, and tells you their relative wealth. I figure this applies just as well to corporations as it does to individuals: if you're going to look askance at Jeff Bezos etc. you may as well keep an eye on businesses with similar disparities of scale relative to their market sector. Not like we haven't seen all this before.