Covid is a lot nastier by the sounds of it. And much more likely in an unvaccinated population. I still fully stand by my decision to get it the very day it became available to me.
Not related but a very slow biological process (prions): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27982991
Broadly: you seem to be implying that you think a ~0.5% fatality rate just "takes a long time to develop". Even if you posit 100% infections in the US (laughably wrong given the trajectory of outbreak, but whatever), you have to accept an IFR almost 0.2%.
Given the ~170M Americans already vaccinated, any side effect worth discussing would need to be at least as bad as killing 334000 of them. And needless no vaccine in history, maybe no widely prescribed drug of any kind, has turned up a long tail side effect analysis like that. Remember when everyone lost their shit about Vioxx? Best estimates are that 38k people died; an order of magnitude lower.
Of course, people tend to only make those arguments for things they don't really want to be done.
The vaccines are a lot better understood than the virus. We don't know of any long-term issues so far.
It's still a much safer bet to get the vaccine IMO. And it will also help with the societal problem around the covid measures. We can't keep going on lockdowns for years to come. It will destroy the economy which has its own associated health risks.
https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/news/news-stories/2021/july/cov...
The relevant chart is on page 27 of the paper here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v...
Also note that they call out the weird results with PhD's as an outlier without an explanation (other education metrics show less hesitancy with more education monotonically), and call for further research.
To wit: you're spinning like crazy here trying to make this data say something its authors expressly disclaim.
For what it's worth, I did end up getting vaccinated recently (J&J, not mRNA-based) after quite a few unpleasant conversations with my spouse that I was endangering our children on the presumption that unvaccinated people more easily spread the virus. This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar (among people tested). Consequently, I'm just staying home these days.
> Generally, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was higher among young (ages 18-24), non-Asian people, and less educated (≤ high school diploma) adults, and those with PhDs, with a history of a positive COVID-19 test, not worried about serious illness from COVID-19 and living in regions with greater support to Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
No, their hesitancy didn't increase, every other group's decreased, making the hesitancy percentage among PhDs (since it remained mostly constant) to be the highest by May.
To put it in 5th grader terms, if Alan had $30, Beth had $20 and Charlie had $15 at the beginning of the year, and Alan"s and Beth's savings decreased to $13 and $5 but Charlie's only decreased to $14 by May, Charlie is now the richest of the group.
I’ve gotten COVID so I don’t feel like I need the vaccine. I have a REAL problem with mandatory vaccination for a virus I’ve already gotten and would gladly contract again if it means I get to retain my agency.
But for someone who has not yet had COVID, why would you suggest they should be uniquely concerned about hypothetical unknown long-term side effects from the vaccine, and not COVID itself?
It's not like COVID is any safer or well-understood. This is a false dichotomy.
That said, I hope Twitter et al don't knee jerk react-to this and block discussion just because it would counter their preferred narrative.
If these were serious and common however, really the hospitals would be so busy by now taking care of all of them. The number of people that got the vaccine here in europe in the space of the last few months is enormous. We started much later than the US but have caught up in a really short time. And with the exception of the UK most countries have used mostly mRNA types and very little AstraZeneca. As a result we had (and probably still have) higher numbers going through vaccination per month than the US.
Even the tiniest percentage of serious complications would have been flooding the hospitals which were already at high pressure due to covid.
In the context of mRNA vaccine if you feel good 1 month after getting the mRNA vaccine or if you feel okay after 1 year means nothing because biological processes are slow but when they kick in they hit hard.
Edit: I gave the example with cows a human variant is Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and onset of symptoms can happen years to decades after exposure. Average life expectancy following the onset of symptoms is 13 months. [1]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Ja...
Very few long-term diseases are long-term because of a deterministic countdown. Rather, they’re the result of a small but long-lived cumulative probability. The cancer that takes twenty years to show up is caused by the persistent 0.17% chance of a malignant tumor every month.
But the upshot is that if you start with a sample size of 100,000 people, the cancer risk will be glaringly obvious in the first month.
One reason children may be more prone to side effects such as heart inflammation is because they are likely to already have naturally acquired immunity, thus the immune response induced by a highly effective vaccine may be 'overwhelming' [5].
> More than half of the cases reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) after people had received their second dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines were in people between the ages of 12 and 24, the CDC said. Those age groups accounted for less than 9% of doses administered. [1]
> In this small case series study, myocarditis was diagnosed in 15 children after COVID-19 vaccination, most commonly in boys after the second dose. In this case series, in short-term follow-up, patients were mildly affected. The long-term risks associated with postvaccination myocarditis remain unknown. [2]
> Acute myocarditis with intense systemic inflammation and atypical Kawasaki disease is an emerging severe pediatric disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. A delayed and inappropriate host immunological response is suspected. [3]
> It should be appreciated that myocardial inflammation alone by macrophages and T cells can be seen in noninfectious deaths and COVID-19 cases, but the extent of each is different, and in neither case do such findings represent clinically relevant myocarditis. [4]
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cdc-heart-inflammation-case...
[2] Association of Myocarditis With BNT162b2 Messenger RNA COVID-19 Vaccine in a Case Series of Children https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...
[3] Acute myocarditis and multisystem inflammatory emerging disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection in critically ill children https://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10.1...
[4] Pathological Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 as a Cause of Myocarditis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816957/
[5] Antibody responses to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01325-6
Can you explain how you have come to that understanding? And further, why are children not dying at the same rate as adults with covid?
> Compared with 18- to 29-year-olds, the rate of death is four times higher in 30- to 39-year-olds, and 600 times higher in those who are 85 years and older. (In the table, a rate of 1x indicates no difference compared to the 18- to 29-year-old age category.)
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...
"Erythema multiforme, a form of allergic skin reaction; glomerulonephritis or kidney inflammation; and nephrotic syndrome, a renal disorder characterised by heavy urinary protein losses, are being studied by the safety committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), according to the regulator."
I'm not a nephrologist, nor am I conversant in kidney disorders so I don't know off the top of my head how serious this might be. Hopefully not too serious.
It is not known to me why some people get it or not get it. Maybe it is genetics maybe there are underlying kidney conditions just like I have.
Acute kidney disease can be serious if it is high grade inflammation which can damage kidneys and then you will probably be given Corticosteroid treatment to calm down the inflammation. But if it is low grade it should go away within 1 month.
Actually I feel safe for myself because the 2nd time I tested positive was hospitalized for nearly 2 months in a Covid ward after a road accident and was literally surrounded by people with the virus. I'm confident that should I catch it again it will be asymptomatic like the 2nd time, but what about other people? How could I live knowing that I brought it to someone because I was so stupid to avoid the vaccination? I'm shocked of the number of people I see who only think along the lines of "I'm safe, I already got it/I'm young" etc. They seem to disregard completely their effect on others. For fuck's sake, people walk around, they move, and bring what they have along with them when they meet others. Is it so hard to get that? I've seen right in front of my face people die with the virus, so I welcome the shots.
About side effects, have anti vaxers ever read any medicines leaflets? One can get nasty side effects with a lot of them. I already wrote about an experience of mine, and here's another: very recently had to halve the dosage of Doxazosin I use to keep blood pressure down because during the last days I was developing an urinary tract infection, and probably will stop taking it the next days. Yes, that one is a side effect, even a pretty common one, of an otherwise normal and safe cure against high blood pressure. And by common side effects, we're talking about 1% to 10%, not one in a hundred thousands or less.
Covid19 vaccines rare side effects are making the news just because there is someone ready to count them on live TV and social media for their own political gain, otherwise they would slip under the radar, just like a lot of other medicines side effects already do since forever, only to be withdrawn from the market should those side effects ratio reach a dangerous level.
As for my shot, felt nothing at all during all yesterday, while today I woke up with a small bump on my left arm where I got the shot and it hurts mildly only if I touch it, otherwise aside feeling weaker than usual no problems at all.
First, you would never know, the virus is out there and some people get COVID symptoms days after getting infected.
Second, by vaccinating you are not preventing infecting other people. You are increasing your chances that when you get COVID it won't be very bad
If you really can't sleep because you can still infect someone, I think you have to self-isolate till the end of your life. In space-suit preferably.
You had a mild allergic reaction. I mean, yeah, that's a "side effect", but not in the sense that all the hysterics here are trying to evoke.
You can see the list of VAERS (caveat lector) adverse events by age group, for the specific lot number on a vaccine card. One vaccine lot number can be distributed across multiple geographical regions. To run the query, replace 123456 at the end of the URL below, with the lot number from a vaccine card. More granular results can be found via the query wizard.
https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?TABLE=ON&GROUP1=...
Public VAERS is about 50% US vs foreign data. There are more accurate, private databases on vaccine injuries, in the US and other countries. You can search VAERS for specific symptoms and the entire raw database can be downloaded for offline analysis.
The goal now should be to keep the hospital beds available for other things, the reefer trucks doing other things and to remove the naive hosts so that COVID turns into a seasonal concern rather than a pandemic. This will require lots more vaccination, or just the willingness to plow under those whose immune system is too weak or too strong. And those in foreign lands are people also, and they can board planes…
It’s possible that we don’t know the ingredients well enough to formulate a theory about what could happen. Here is where RCT is useful.
Otherwise what ingredients do these vax have that could possibly cause these reactions?
I’m thinking the fats and lipids the mRNA is put with are aminos that cause different affects in people. The cynic inside believes they are to sterilize people. I got vax’d but still I want to know.
