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0 pointsBugsJustFindMe4y ago0 comments

> the various terrible things that could happen to 1 in 1million people

The current US COVID fatality rate is 1 in 50 cases. The incidence of measurable brain damage in survivors appears to be even higher. Even if we pretend that everyone in the entire US has already been infected (obviously false), that would still be a fatality rate of 1 in 550. Getting to 1 in a million takes some extreme stretching.

> We never made everyone stay inside with AIDS

I don't know who all needs to hear this, but you cannot get HIV from someone breathing on you. Also the government's weak/slow response to the HIV epidemic in the US is considered by many historians to have been a complete travesty of governance. I don't think it makes the great point of comparison that you intended it to.

> all viral colds have a whole slurry of symptoms that some unlucky few get

"Few" being the operative word there. The difference in risk between a cold and COVID is stark.

> I remember when some kid in my mom's second grade class died one weekend

You remember it as a weird rare event because there wasn't a global cold pandemic killing 1 in 50 people who got infected.

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iammisc4y ago

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/

This offers real estimates of the actual IFR (the likelihood of death if you have the virus in your system).

I'll refer you to table 3

The average HNer is going to likely be in the 0-54 demographic. Their IFR is anywhere from 0.004% to 0.23%.

The case fatality ratio you cite has a number of problems. Firstly, it's not true that the 'current' COVID fatality rate is 1/50. To make such a claim you need to define 'current'. You are citing the entire case fatality rate over the last year and a half. And even then, you're overstating it, since it's 1.8% by most estimates.

A current rate would mean taking a smaller window starting from today and determining the CFR. Given that cases are currently going up while deaths are flat, the current CFR is going to be lower than the global CFR you cited.

CFR is always higher, because most people with COVID will not notice they have it [1]. Thus, we need scientific modeling to determine the number.

Moreover, I am not arguing that vulnerable populations do not exist. Merely that the death rates are so non-uniformly distributed, that it really doesn't make sense to have a uniform policy on all age groups / background conditions. The data tell a lot different story.

[1] From the study: The exponential pattern of our age-specific IFR estimates is qualitatively similar to that of case fatality rates (CFRs). However, the relative magnitudes are systematically different, reflecting the extent to which asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases are much more common in younger adults than in middle-aged and older adults. For example, the ratio of CFR to IFR is about 15:1 for ages 30–49, about 7:1 for ages 50–69, and about 5:1 for ages 70–79 years

nradov4y ago

I flagged your comment for spreading misinformation about a serious subject. The fatality rate is nowhere near 2%. The latest data from the CDC shows 0.6%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

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