I think what's actually going to happen is that copilot will be successful, but will be a much worse version of poor quality outsourcing. There are going to be people "writing code" that don't even have the ability to evaluate the implementation.

You see the same thing in some industries where the institutional knowledge of the baby boomers is disappearing. No one stays at the same job for more than a few years and you can see people making mistakes with things that are out by a factor of 10x or 100x sometimes. Very often people don't have the ability to grasp the basic concepts of the work they're doing. I think the same thing will bleed over to software development a lot over the next decade.

I also have a huge objection to having any code I write used to develop an "AI" for the benefit of a huge corporation. Do I get a cut? I doubt it. That alone should be enough for people to quit using GitHub. They're training they're own replacement and are too dumb to see it IMO.