The problem is it never does actually replace the proven technology. Makes for a good blog post, though.
Glad you liked the post.
I think I actually see that less than I did a few years ago. OAuth was hard to implement, and not that easy to use, so a lot of people got turned off by it.
I'm curious to see where BrowserID will go.
Wow, this is exactly what I thought about my Facebook stream. Too much garbage that I cannot easily filter out, like I can e-mail.
For sending quick notes to my mom, or even my coworkers, maybe. But what about using e-mail as an identity when signing up somewhere? What about creating throwaway accounts? (e.g., sendmespam@lishin.org) What about creating accounts for my business to contact customers? (e.g., donotreply@cannedgoat.com)
The bitching about having to sort e-mails and manually add filters? You have to manually add people to circles, too. And what happens when someone who's not in one of your circles shares something with you? At least currently, there's no way to filter them based on anything.
"But we can just add filters to Google+!"
We already have filters in e-mail.
I feel like I sound like a grizzled old man ("we used to code uphill both ways in the snow!") but I really don't understand how G+ is superior to e-mail.
Atleast 50% of my friends don't really get into the social networking. Either not having accounts or checking it once a week/month. I would say 95% of the people I now have email addresses and I can communicate with them.
When ever I see stats its always x amount of people use this per month. And I thinks for the same reason that exists in my friends. They don't care to much for that much about these sites.
I would guess over 90% of the content on FB is from 10% of my friends. The rest aren't so excited about it. So far none of my friends are really using Google+, and the ones that are I could say less about the content they are posting.
So I think you are misguided, and are under estimating how little interest a business is going to have towards storing there business data on what for many (including several of my own products) is a competitors system.
http://www.campaignmonitor.com/stats/email-clients/
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-uhu-fZwXC60/Th6LbbZFv_I/A...
I'm not saying change isn't coming. I just don't think a Google social network will be it. Hell even there 18 million user announcement is quite average... thats under 10% of gmail users.
Considering MS has been spotted toying with implementing Social networks directly in Windows 8 (and with their share of FaceBook + Windows Live + Desktop OS we are talking massive users base).
A decent implementation could destroy all competition. The only ray of light there is MS history of failure.
If G+ is replaced by something as open as email, implementable by anyone, then yeah, maybe. But not until.
Email, obviously, is one pro example of what I'm talking about. A con example is your Docs example, you only get that on Google (and maybe MS is in early days, I don't pay too much attention to them), and yet it is counted in the "success" column, I think.
Coincidentally, I believe that this will be the greatest drag on the "singularity"-- legacy systems, and the cultural atmosphere which stifles the adoption of alternatives.
