https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/23/6345/pdf
Let's re-do my maths, assuming I over-estimated the CO2 output of manufacturing the EV battery by 100%, and this time we'll assume a charging grid (that is, where the EV will be charged) CO2 output of 0.3kg CO2 / kWh, which is worse than where I live, but better than the US.
I'll also assume an electrical power transmission loss of 10%, and an EV wall-to-wheel efficency of 80%, as well as keeping my well-to-tank CO2 production factor of 1.5 for petrol.
The answer comes out at around 25,000 miles. Better, but not great. At this point, your EV now continues producing CO2 at a rate of 0.12kg/mi, and the ICE car at 0.47kg/mi. By 100,000 miles, your EV has comparatively emitted 21,000kg CO2 (charging emissions of 12,000kg CO2 + battery pack of 9,000kg CO2), to the ICE car's 47,000kg CO2.
I have not taken into account the manufacture and maintentance of all of the EV charging points, which I expect to be substantial.
Looking at the overall - you have about halved your CO2 output for transport, as well as being able to offload about half of that again to whichever country manufactured the battery pack. You have also offloaded all of the point-of-use emissions, again effectively to whichever country manufactured the battery pack. To achieve this great success, an enormous amount of metals and semiconductors had to be used to manufacture all the charging points, as well as the attendant environmental damage and pollution from mineral mining, and disposal.
The fact that the overall benefits of EVs are even debatable, should tell you that this is not the radical change we apparently need to avert a climate catastrophe. To me, it seems like it would provide at best a modest improvement, all while seriously enriching a select few companies and economies.
If it really were about making radical changes to avert a climate catastrophe, it sounds like we should all be cycling, or at worst, using Honda C50 mopeds.
If you say "well, a 50% reduction is worth it", you could achieve that by driving half as much. Or by driving 75% as much, and changing to a car that is 25% more efficient. Or by car-sharing. None of those require enormous amounts of extra mineral extraction and pollution, but none of those make anyone any money, so there we go.
The unsustainable part of personal transport is the huge metal box we all expect to sit in, not the fuel used to power it.
