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0 pointsgonehome5y ago0 comments

Google Glass died because the hardware sucked, the UI and utility were not there. The general magic device was also a failure, but mobile computing is obviously not.

The timing has to be right and the hardware has to be possible - if you're too early it won't work.

Flying cars is a bad comparison - they mostly don't exist in widespread use because of reasons not related to computing. Risk, fuel, control, etc. - even then rich people do have helicopters (though that's mostly different).

Pointing out failed predictions does not imply that all predictions are similarly wrong. In computing - the examples I showed (and there are others) are more relevant.

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5 comments · 2 top-level

slver5y ago· 2 in thread

> Google Glass died because the hardware sucked, the UI and utility were not there.

And nothing has changed about that.

> Pointing out failed predictions does not imply that all predictions are similarly wrong. In computing - the examples I showed (and there are others) are more relevant.

Most predictions are actually wrong. Let's see the hardware that "doesn't suck", let's see the UI and utility that "are there" and then I'll tell you if we have a winner or not.

Right now we have nothing except bold fantasies powered by sci-fi movies full of cheap hologram VFX.

gonehomeOP5y ago

> And nothing has changed about that.

Yet - it's a prediction based on the capability of future hardware that seems plausible.

> Let's see the hardware that "doesn't suck", let's see the UI and utility that "are there" and then I'll tell you if we have a winner or not.

Yeah sure, it's way easier to make predictions in hindsight after other people have already built it. Even then - when the iPhone launched in 2007 it was largely panned in a similar way to what you're doing now.

Making accurate predictions is hard - I agree with that. If you dismiss everything you'll be right a lot of the time, but you'll also miss every big and interesting change until someone else builds it.

Supermancho5y ago

> it's a prediction based on the capability of future hardware that seems plausible.

And nuclear fusion reactors are only 20 years away. That's a concrete goal and it's more likely than some vague new "metaverse". I promise, you'll still be posting on HN when anything resembling a shadow of this is released.

kmonsen5y ago· 1 in thread

I remember the one time Sergei Brin said helicopters are surprisingly affordable. Sure if you are like 9th richest in the world that might be true.

Sophistifunk5y ago

Helicopters are surprisingly affordable in that you'd be surprised how cheap a bare-bones helicopter like you'll find all over the outback is. It's still shitloads, but it's less than you think.

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