Mostly based on the 'science' out there. I probably know about 3 career scientists, I think, which is probably not a good sample.
>My understanding is that a lot of problems in science are incentive based, and that would look very similar to someone just not knowing things from the outside.
I can agree that a lot of it may be probably incentive based vs 'scientists' just not being smart enough. But is is hard to glean what the proportions are. I still suspect ( based on a general assessment of people both known and on the internet) that it is the latter.