I think CentOS had failed had Redhat not maintained it.
Hopefully Rocky Linux will have better luck and more community involvement. It is likely, given the number of companies that have come to depend on CentOS, but I would not use Rocky Linux in production for critical system in the next two to five years.
The approach to "long term stability" has not changed whatsoever. The only difference is whether the updates are delivered as point-release bundles every 6 months, or incrementally. And it's supported for 5 years instead of 10, which is in-line with other free LTS distros.
Hopefully Rocky wont suffer the same fate being supported by the community from the outset.
But I might wait a bit before trying it :)
There's no question about that, but I just don't equate a large install base with being successful. Had CentOS been successful, there would have been no Redhat involvement. CentOS failed the day Redhat took control of the project. After that it was just an version of RHEL without the subscription.
Companies wanted RHEL, but not pay for the development and maintenance. If this changes, and more companies are will to either donate to pay developers, or hire Rocky Linux develops, then maybe it will be successful. If it's just a few people slaving away in their free time, trying to maintain a parallel RHEL build, then I kinda doubt it's longevity.
It's not the I just want something for nothing. I'll pay for good tools, but my time is money too and if I feel myself going down a high-touch sales process with stuff that feels like lock-in and DRM, I'm gonna check out and go for an alternative pretty quick. I used CentOS all the time because I was in the position of trying to support people running my software on Red Hat. And I never had to worry about talking to a sales person, or making sure my keys for the repository were everywhere they needed to be. I would have still used it, even if I had to enter my personal credit card to get an official ISO. Even once my company had a proper agreement and partnership with Red Hat, it was still a pain for me to get a system up and running without talking to IT, etc.
Red Hat seems to have lighter-weight licensing for such use cases now, so we'll see. But at this point I've already switched over to Ubuntu and I doubt Red Hat or Red Hat clones will ever fully recover to their former glory.
CentOS 3, 4, 5, 6 and now 7 have all fulfilled their mission to be bit-clones of RHEL since 2004. As a CentOS user of every single one of them, they were a success and satisfied the needs of the community for 17 years. The first version of Ubuntu was released 6 months after CentOS 3.
