Making an example out of this could well be cheaper than confronting Moscow in the long run. I’m not advocating it. Just saying this wasn’t a risk-free entourage. Levelling a few military air bases while communicating to Russia exactly what’s being done will piss everyone off, but it’s unlikely to escalate. It is also unlikely to spiral.
Lukashenko and Putin would love that. No one would longer doubt it when they say that opposition is backed by NATO. As for the spiral, well, Ukraine would probably lose some of its military bases, just because it's apparently no big deal now.
I think as a rule, we should use epistemic humility and look to past instances of intervention unless we have really strong reasons to believe that this would be a uniquely successful intervention.
