There is a lot they could do but the question is what they are willing to do. Right now they only appear willing to "object loudly" which they know will accomplish nothing.

If they really want to get this guy released and set a deterring precedent they would start playing hardball, which could include things like:

* Deny Belarus aircraft the right transit anywhere in the EU.

* Do so while some Belarus aircraft are on the ground in the EU and don't allow them to leave. This effectively holds those planes hostage as a bargaining chip, though it's really leverage on the Belarus airlines (and the planes themselves are probably leased). But it still creates problems for the regime.

* Refuse to allow the transit of any Belarus top officials anywhere in the EU. Start expanding this list daily to include more people and their direct families and make the directive permanent until the guy is released. Once you get the spouses of a couple dozen of the top people in the regime contemplating spending the rest of their lives without Italian vacations or Parisian shopping - much less just being able to go anywhere other than Russia - you're starting to cause some hard conversations about how much making an example of this guy is really worth.

Sadly, I doubt the EU will do any of this type of stuff but barring that, there's really no incremental cost to Belarus, nothing will happen and this guy is screwed.

EU states have no problem signing big deals with Russia, who performs even more questionable moves. Belarus won't feel a thing.

Start investigating about Russian high-state officials. Plenty of them have EU or US citizenship. Sometimes their relatives, but it's all from stolen money. Arrest their goods, put their money on hold, until they present proofs of their money being earned by a lawful means (those proofs will be fake, because their money are from bribes, extortions, thefts).

I'm sure that Belarus is in the same boat.

Sherlock Holmes's house in London is owned by Nazarbayev's daughter. It's so ironic.

The largest trade partners for Belarus are: Russia, Ukraine, Britain, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, China (imports), Lithuania, and Italy (imports).

The EU can severely damage the economy of Belarus by cutting off all trade and financial ties. And then work with the US to essentially destroy the country economically by cutting it off to nearly all global trade and financing. The only thing left to prop it up would be Russia and some Chinese imports; it would make Belarus a hermit state economically.

All the US has to do is say: we'll sanction any bank, corporation or person that does business with Belarus. Most will instantly capitulate, just as they did with Iran.

If the US asks Britain, Poland and Ukraine to suspend all trade ties to Belarus, they'll do it. Combine that with the EU members, and Belarus no longer functions in terms of having access to the global economy.

The downside to smashing Belarus in such a way, which would be very easy to do, is that it'll just throw Belarus into the hands of Russia entirely. Lukashenko knows that context with the West and has been playing the angles for a long time accordingly.

It's 21st century - they will post some angry Tweets and FB posts.

The EU, if willing, could crush Belarus. Probably not the best action.

Do the same thing to some prominent Belarussians? Trade sanctions?