He is in impossible situation not because of Russia, but because of corrupt and violent regime he created. Majority of population in Belarus is pro-Russian, so the alliance between countries would persist after the transition of power (see Armenia, Kyrgyzstan for recent examples of how this works). His personal risks are loss of all assets and the fact that the new government will likely demand his extradition from Russia for criminal investigation. Probably the only reason why Lukashenko is still there is that Russia will not revoke its support until there are signs that opposition wins.