By that time they'll also have a launch vehicle capable of launching around 300 satellites in a single launch.
Additionally, 42,000 was a worst case for the number needed and only if things go exceedingly well with the service. I think people quote that number too much when in reality there's likely to be under 5000 (from SpaceX at least).
I think number of launches was used as a proxy for number of satellites launched in the last month - more satellites/launch shouldn't impact it that much.
> I think people quote that number too much when in reality there's likely to be under 5000 (from SpaceX at least).
Why? I think it's much more likely that they either fail, or (eventually) launch every single satellite that their licenses allow. More satellites increases the proportion of the market they can address, and if they can profitably launch a satellite, they can profitably launch a second.
What about when competing services launch, as they will if this is successful? What are the total numbers going to look like if EU, Russia, China, Japan, and India all launch starlink services?
