For what it's worth, in order for the constellation to reach steady state the number of launches in the last month will need to be proportional to the total # of orbit. So if the constellation has 42,000 satellites and the satellites last 10 years on average (IMO that's an optimistic lifespan), you need to launch around 350/month just to maintain the size of the constellation.
Additionally, 42,000 was a worst case for the number needed and only if things go exceedingly well with the service. I think people quote that number too much when in reality there's likely to be under 5000 (from SpaceX at least).
For the major brightness issues sure, but they are not invisible or undetectable while in operation. Surely the effects are proportional to both the recent launches and the whole size.
I think it's a bit early to dismiss the whole sky effect of multiple Starlink-style constellations in operation.
Also isn't Starlink intending to do launches for the rest of time? There is always a value for the last month of launches- they'll never stop launching right?
Just thinking out loud.
Once you start using any optics they will be visible.
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2101/2101.00374.pdf#:~:te....
https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/what-is-stellar-ma...
I might sit down and do the math to see how 1500 satellites at mag 6 compares to 60 at mag 2.
> I think it's a bit early to dismiss the whole sky effect of multiple Starlink-style constellations in operation.
I wasn't trying to dismiss their effect, just address the people who say "you think those 60 are bad, imagine when there are 20,000", or "there go the Americans, ruining the night sky for the whole world".
I have no idea how oneweb or blue origin will handle this issue.
> Also isn't Starlink intending to do launches for the rest of time?
Their satellites are designed for a 5 year lifespan. Without constant boosts, they will deorbit and burn up fully in the atmosphere. This is great, because they will not become space junk, and they can't cause the dreaded kessler syndrome. The downside is that they will need to be constantly replenished. Hopefully this will be streamlined when they can launch 600 at a time, reducing the number of launches by a factor of 10.
Basically, if SpaceX makes it, we'll probably have a Starship-launched lunar observatory quite soon, in the grand scheme of things.
This doesn't help the situation now, although there is so much screaming from the anti-Musk people as well as the pro-Musk people that it's hard to tell what the actual impact of the now-somewhat-albedo-mitigated starlink v.whatever satellites are. All of the coverage is breathless sky-is-falling stuff.
In any case, the situation is temporary. Either SpaceX makes it and we get a far side of Luna observatory and LEO/MEO telescopes besides, or they don't and in a few years Starlink all falls down and burns.
EDIT: Removed "past times" parameter as suggested in comments. Also note you can remove also see loads of other satellites with an unadorned URL : https://james.darpinian.com/satellites
I think it made more sense when there were less satellites, but this was a pretty common opinion from the start.
When I originally created this it was so sparse that it was really easy to distinguish, now that would probably be a useful feature.
It's also just not that simple to implement. I threw this together really quickly, and the only data I am using is the orbit tracks, it doesn't include whether or not a satellite is on station yet.
This was in the Bay Area. I'm living in Fairfax now.
I have been following Starlink since. I haven't had much luck. I thought their telemetry could be configured within seconds, but I guess their are other variables according to Startlink? Oh yea---there is part of me hoping man doesn't overdo it though. This was great, but thousands would be another story.
https://wyclif.substack.com/p/li-bai-and-the-abominable-prag...
Edit: Aahhh I see now, it's meant for stargazers (well, starlinkgazers) and it only shows the visible passes. Got it. I'm used to using sat trackers for ham radio purposes and they show all passes, that's why I was confused.
https://aerospace.org/reentries?field_reentry_type_target_id...
Give it a location and it will tell you all the bright objects that should be visible
Both for sentry mode (antitheft) and autonomy training.
Of course it would be regulatory nightmare.
Someone told me there was a line of them last night, probably from the most recent launch, but I couldn't find them.
The coolest satellite sighting I’ve had was when I was up on Mt. Hood a few summers ago and could see it really well. There was a meteor shower going on too.
Large mountains and infinite space are humbling in a good way.
That night was quite a journey. :-)
Hmm, maybe that's why he moved to Texas...
("no jury in the world will convict a baby — except maybe Texas")
Maybe I'm wrong to not find it funny, but I'm not a buzzkill in general, I just think this joke doesn't work and needs to be workshopped.
And if we did get up to the ridiculous scale to block even half a percent of sunlight I'm pretty sure that would actually be a good thing.
Before the launches, the HN crowd promised repeatedly that nobody would be able to see these satellites and they would not change the night sky at all, and that that looking up in wonder is only something that old people and luddites do, because nothing is more important than global always-on sacred holy internet access.
Starship will launch say 400 to LEO (rather than 60 as now), could it launch 100 to a higher orbit to reduce the impact? More starship launches (good for proving), and as the satelites deploy at a higher altitude they'll be darker
Can you point them out? No, they're invisible at their operational altitude.
Go visit New Delhi or Lahore in mid winter and give us your subjective opinion of the air quality.
https://www.google.com/search?q=delhi+air+pollution&client=u...
Clean up the damn lawn!
You will probably sooner see EU, Russia and China decide that it is their strategic interest to have their own constellations. As it was with GPS. Currently we have the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS), Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), China's BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) and the European Union's Galileo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OneWeb
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OneWeb_satellite_constellation
Your 'absolute travesty' is only temporary.