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0 pointsnl4y ago0 comments

Sure, one could argue that AOL and Yahoo were overvalued at their peak. They had low existing earnings and the price was supported by expectations of magical new profits.

But that's a difficult argument to make for Facebook. Facebook is highly profitable - they have averaged something like 80% gross profit margins for a decade[1] while sustaining significant revenue growth. That's pretty much guaranteed that their stock will continue to appreciate - with margins that high they have a lot of room to play with things to keep growth going.

What metric makes it look like that is a greater fool situation?

[1] https://www.reuters.com/companies/FB.O/key-metrics

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gen2204y ago

I don’t think you can make an argument against the present valuation of FB on a historical performance basis.

Investors will tell you that historical performance does not guarantee future performance. It’s one yardstick, but it’s not always the best one.

Facebook’s historical revenue growth was catalyzed by environmental factors that are shifting underneath them.

In 2021, FB would not be allowed to acquire Instagram or WhatsApp. In 2021, Apple (custodians of their most valuable user base) is no longer cooperating with adware.

What does future revenue growth for a Facebook look like, who is not allowed to acquire upstart competitors, who is not allowed to extract maximum value from its mines, and who is facing regulatory scrutiny for past deeds?

Would you be willing to bet that $900B, or $300ish/share on $30 revenue/share have these uncertainties priced-in?

Yahoo! and AOL were dumpster fires in comparison, of course. But I wouldn’t be so certain that FB hasn’t passed its peak valuation, just because it has had a money printing machine for the past decade.

nlOP4y ago

Despite all these technology challenges we love to discuss on HN, the truth is that last quarter every single metric except US/Canada daily FB users was up. Daily US/Canada users fell by ~0.5% but this was more than offset by a 1% growth in EU.

Their average revenue per user increased by the largest amount ever (in both absolute and percentage terms) last quarter.

In terms of technology challenges, the iOS changes will reduce FB's ability to target ads. However, it is quite possible this will lead to more revenue for FB because the market structure (ie, domination by FB and Google) means FB maybe able to pass on the loss inefficiency to advertisers.

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