I disagree that there's a 2^128 chance that they will collide. Trivially, I can show you a hash that will never collide for up to some N, and that is F(P) = P mod 2^128. This will never collide unless P is more than 128 bits long.
My rationale, above, was that SHA constrains the space to 128 bits. Therefore, for different SHA hashes (ones that haven't already collided), the probability that bcrypt will collide might be smaller (or zero, as in my example above).
In reality it doesn't work like that, I know, but in theory you can't be sure that the probabilities of collision will add (or, well, multiply) up.