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0 pointsjerf5y ago0 comments

"So the six reported cases in 6.8 million vaccinations seems low."

No, because those 6 cases are something more like "1 per day" rather than "per year". Or maybe "per week". But either way, you need to multiply the "per year" base rate by a large number to get the base rate for "coincidentally happened immediately after a particular event", for some definition of "immediately".

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3 comments · 3 top-level

foolmeonce5y ago

It's reports within 3 weeks, so something like 18 per million per year.. The larger danger is any interaction with an automobile to get to the appointment.

foobiekr5y ago

They also appear to cluster in young women and one young man (from the phase 3), do it’s quite probable that the “6 million” is not representative.

stjohnswarts5y ago

Using 1 per year is useless unless it's adjusted to a ratiometric form like percentage or per capita

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