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0 pointsmhb5y ago0 comments

That's all hand-waving. Why is it reasonable to delay vaccinating people based on these events? Maybe it is, but not because your gut feel says so.

What erodes confidence is the complete absence of cost/benefit discussions about virtually any decision that has been made. Including this one.

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toast05y ago· 3 in thread

We've now got a known risk that's quantifiable, but hasn't been quantified. You can estimate the risk based on the current information, but now that it's a known risk, I would expect to have more complete information in a few weeks.

If this turns out to be about what it looks like now, unpause and go forward. If it turns out to be much more significant, all the better for having stopped; maybe restrict this vaccine to populations at higher risk of COVID or lower risk of blood clots (if that risk can be determined). Both mRNA vaccines and modified adenovirus vaccines are new types of vaccines not used before on a wide scale; pausing to get clarity on a major negative side effect is warranted.

mhbOP5y ago

You've hinted at a framework for making a decision but left out an important component.

A credible decision would give your estimates of harm/benefit for delaying vaccinating people. You seem all too willing to ignore the people who will become sick or die because of delaying the vaccine. You are only looking at potential harm from not delaying the vaccine. Unfortunately, you have a lot of company.

dragonwriter5y ago

> A credible decision would give your estimates of harm/benefit for delaying vaccinating people.

It seems to me that the delay imposed by a pause in use of the J&J vaccine to make sure healthcare providers are informed of and have appropriately updated diagnostic and treatment protocols is minor, its basically pulling forward by a few days the effects of the 80% week-over-week drop in J&J vaccine supply that was just in the news.

toast05y ago

The risk isn't just the blood clots, it's that the vaccine is perceived as rushed (it was) and warning signs were ignored, so maybe other things were ignored.

Leading to more people delaying their vaccination. Supply is currently at a level that all doses available are administered, but to the extent lost confidence results in longer delay for high risk patients, that has a cost. When supply exceeds demand, lost confidence will have a cost for those low risk people who delay, as well as the general population which loses out on wider immunity. Delaying the vaccine now certainly also has some cost of the same type, but it's bounded. Another case of a vaccine campaign ignoring warning signs and proceeding without pausing to consider appropriate response to issues as they arise will affect this campaign as well as future campaigns.

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