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0 pointsboomboomsubban5y ago0 comments

>The problem I have is that China isn't interested in investigating the start of the pandemic.

Why should they be interested? We know how SARS type viruses can spread to humans, we know what other species are vulnerable, and we know what things make it more or less likely. A new outbreak was not a surprising result. What benefit is there to aggressively investigating the exact transmission method?

If your mink idea was found to be accurate, would you advocate closing mink farms? It being the source this time doesn't make it likely to cause the next transferrable virus.

0 comments

kittiepryde5y ago

Science is about collecting data, verifying, collecting more, in a repeating never ending cycle. Stopping science (especially in areas of active present day research) in the belief that we know and are done with it, just isn't sound logic. Viruses are not yet solved.

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

I am not arguing to stop science, I don't see the benefit we're hoping to get out of aggressively researching various theories about how exactly the 2019 covid virus spread to humans.

frenchy5y ago

Presumably a better understanding of the origins of the 2019 virus would be useful for predicting the likelyhood of a similar outbreak from the same source, or allow people to alter practices to reduce that likelyhood.

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

Our current understanding of everything you mention is already good, and there have been no indications that I'm aware of that this case happened in a way that would alter that understanding.

To show my point, even if we aggressively investigate the source and discover it did not originate in a lab, nobody would then argue that it's alright to lower security on such biolabs.

1 more reply

arcticfox5y ago

Why would we not "aggressively" research it? What if we could have stopped it by catching it early?

Knowing whether it was a lab leak or zoonotic would be a massive hint in the direction to invest in. N=1, but it's a big 1 that would have massive public support.

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

>What if we could have stopped it by catching it early?

So we should be aggressively researching all the known possible future causes, not wasting time trying to figure out what the exact cause this time was.

>Knowing whether it was a lab leak or zoonotic would be a massive hint in the direction to invest

We know both are possible causes, investing in just the one that caused this leaves us open to the other.

lamontcg5y ago

That means that mink, and particularly the practice of mink farming is likely to lead to another outbreak (or whatever the actual species is determined to be). That animal would have sufficiently similar biology to humans, including the ACE2 receptor so that zoonotic transmission could happen. Those farms would definitely need to be closed.

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

I have not researched this mink idea, so I don't know how likely they are to lead to cross species contamination, but remember the swine flu? We already know pigs are capable of such transmission and we still farm them.

Lots of mammals are capable of this, and we can determine which ones are even if we don't isolate the cause of thie pandemic.

aden1ne5y ago

Minks (and other mustelids) are extraordinarily capable of transmitting human respiratory viral diseases. Ferrets (same genus as Minks) are used as an animal model for human influenza research for that reason.

SARS-CoV-2 also spreads exceptionally well on mink farms. Out of a total of 128 mink farms in the Netherlands, at least 69[0] had an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, with more suspected cases. On at least two farms, there were confirmed transmissions from the animals to farm workers. It is likely mink would form a natural reservoir SARS-CoV-2 if allowed to spread in the wild.

Mink farming has subsequently been banned since early 2021 in the Netherlands.

[0]: https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/coronavirus-covid-1... (Dutch)

wonnage5y ago

In any case, the original statement is silly in light of the fact that the origin of the much smaller SARS epidemic was still diligently researched and traced for 15+ years until it was finally found, in 2018: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

And thankfully confirming what was suspected prevented future outbreaks of similar diseases.

throwaway534535y ago

I'd argue China needs to engage in proper sanitation and stop treating citizens as disposable.

dang5y ago

Please do not post nationalistic flamebait to HN. It leads to flamewars, which we're trying to avoid here.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

While I have you: could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?query=community%20identity%20by:dang...

throwaway534535y ago

Sorry dang, have no intention of spamming the website with different accounts. I'll pay more attention to the rules next time.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

kittiepryde5y ago

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

I am not arguing to stop science, I don't see the benefit we're hoping to get out of aggressively researching various theories about how exactly the 2019 covid virus spread to humans.

frenchy5y ago

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

Our current understanding of everything you mention is already good, and there have been no indications that I'm aware of that this case happened in a way that would alter that understanding.

To show my point, even if we aggressively investigate the source and discover it did not originate in a lab, nobody would then argue that it's alright to lower security on such biolabs.

1 more reply

arcticfox5y ago

Why would we not "aggressively" research it? What if we could have stopped it by catching it early?

Knowing whether it was a lab leak or zoonotic would be a massive hint in the direction to invest in. N=1, but it's a big 1 that would have massive public support.

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

>What if we could have stopped it by catching it early?

So we should be aggressively researching all the known possible future causes, not wasting time trying to figure out what the exact cause this time was.

>Knowing whether it was a lab leak or zoonotic would be a massive hint in the direction to invest

We know both are possible causes, investing in just the one that caused this leaves us open to the other.

lamontcg5y ago

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

Lots of mammals are capable of this, and we can determine which ones are even if we don't isolate the cause of thie pandemic.

aden1ne5y ago

Mink farming has subsequently been banned since early 2021 in the Netherlands.

[0]: https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/coronavirus-covid-1... (Dutch)

wonnage5y ago

boomboomsubbanOP5y ago

And thankfully confirming what was suspected prevented future outbreaks of similar diseases.

throwaway534535y ago

I'd argue China needs to engage in proper sanitation and stop treating citizens as disposable.

dang5y ago

Please do not post nationalistic flamebait to HN. It leads to flamewars, which we're trying to avoid here.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

throwaway534535y ago

Sorry dang, have no intention of spamming the website with different accounts. I'll pay more attention to the rules next time.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse