The people who make their decisions based on what Dell defaults to are going to end up with Vista - because that is their only option now. There was a time when they had a choice between XP or Vista with a new computer, now you have a choice between Vista or no computer.
So this campaign is aimed at the people who actually make an informed decision and influence large purchases - basically IT guys since businesses are the ones still using XP/2000. Insulting their intelligence is not an effective strategy.
This marketing campaign will resonate well with every person who has concluded that Vista sucks without ever giving it a chance. I have a feeling that is a massive target audience.
When it's an ad, well, it's just an ad. I don't think those Apple ads with John Hodgman are going to be published in any scientific journals any time soon, but they're still great ads.
I'd say this is an effective ad. I can't think of a better way to get the message to people that Vista is getting a worse reputation than it deserves.
