What we know so far is that some people are reporting completely unreasonable, dangerous levels of SSD write volume, which on some configurations would be expected to prematurely wear down SSDs (which are not replaceable) well before the expected lifetime of the device. We don't know yet what triggers this; it looks like some kind of bug or software combination, but it's too early to have good leads.
The worst example so far is David's, which, if scaled proportionally (by Flash cell wear) from his 2TB SSD to a base 256GB model, would be reaching 100% lifetime usage within less than a year. This calculation is based on an assumption of equal (proportional) overprovisioning for those two models, and an assumption that whatever triggers this behavior doesn't care about total SSD size; these are sensible assumptions to make at this stage but not verified.
https://twitter.com/marcan42/status/1361160838854316032
This is clearly a software problem, and fixable with an update. It's not a hardware defect, it's the kernel (we think it's a VM* issue) hammering the SSD way too much.
There is reason to be concerned, and to make sure Apple fixes this if it is a real bug. There is no reason to be alarmed and panic about these machines. If this is a real issue they have to fix it; they aren't stupid, Apple knows full well that the SSDs in some M1 macs dropping like flies within a year would be a PR disaster for them. What we need to do know is gather data and try to find a way to reproduce this.
* VM means Virtual Memory, not Virtual Machine, in this context, for all you non-kernel folks.
Most users will be able to get a decade worth of usage out of it.
Nothing to see here, move along.
That is two big assumptions: assuming linear degradation and assuming the mac is usable until it reaches 0%.
I would think that it starts degrades faster as it wears, and that by the time it is at least 90% on a 256gb or even 512gb SSD it will be effectivly unusable.
I thought i already accounted for that by stating "most users will get a decade of use". That's roughly 66% of linear degradation to 0%.
> and that by the time it is at least 90% on a 256gb or even 512gb SSD it will be effectivly unusable.
As i understand it, the "lifetime" is a reflection of the spare sectors, meaning once the spare sectors run out you'll start seeing errors instead of relocated sectors. It will probably continue for some time after that.
Knowing Apple, if it becomes a problem anytime within the first 5-6 years, they'll replace it for free. I had a 2008 iMac with a manufacturing problem on the Seagate 1TB drive it shipped with, and 5 years after purchase (2013), i was able to get the drive replaced for free despite my machine showing no signs of the error. 5 years after purchase, and a full 3 years after most consumer laws stop protecting you.
Other than that, the only reason this is a "problem" is because SSDs has an indicator that tells you when they'll expire. Spinning rust doesn't have that, but some spinning rust will also expire after 5-6 years, and most will have expired by the time a decade has passed (assuming daily usage).
This is the figure that storage manufacturers use in their warranties to decide if a device has been excessively used - NOT the amount of writes.
Even if you just look at the 2TB model itself, 3% in 2 months means the thing will reach 100% in 5 years which is... not great.
So there is reason to be concerned here.
The product configuration as shipped inflicts permanent damage on itself, it's very difficult to see this as anything but a manufacturing defect.
What "2-4 years wear"?
It's 1% of usage in 2 months. That's par for the course for any SSD in any laptop with regular usage, and it should last long before the laptop is updated in 6 or so years...
Heck, 50% "percentage used" would take 8 years with this rate...
