I can trivially explain my own situation. There is a random event or deadline that forces me to stay awake until 2AM. I am slightly sleepy 30 min before midnight. I push through to 0:30 after midnight and then the sleepiness starts going away until it comes back at 2AM. The next day my sleep cycle is now offset by 1 or 2 hours and I can no longer fall asleep at midnight.
It takes a week of consistent bed time to create a consistent time to fall asleep again.
Since I am fully aware of how my sleep cycle works my only conclusion is: I hate EXTERNAL EVENT.