I don't see why Europe would suffer a much different fate from the US.
I think the main thing holding the EU back is their love for austerity. They could do a lot more to invest in their economy.
EU as a concept is still highly supported amongst adults and young adults. And if anything Brexit strengthened that, since UK is a now a clown that everyone laughs at with all the issues they are going through.
A lot of young people migrate between EU countries and just that is the biggest visible positive that all working adults recognise. Its something people would not want to lose willy-nilly. Something realllly serious would have to happen for EU to fail catastrophically.
The EU is a globalization project in an era where globalization is on the decline. It was held together by US warships and will fall apart as they recede, a vacuum filled by local, competing powers. Europe will not be immune to it, since it is after all composed of many cultures and many economies with competing aims.
It’s not a matter of what people want, it’s a matter of economic realities that will impugn any high-minded desire for unity and collaboration.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2021-01/astrazeneca-eu-k...
MSN Money: "Bild tore apart Von Der Leyen's explanation of the vaccine delays and threat to stop supplies heading to the UK line by line, accusing her of placing 'junk' orders for vaccines three months behind Britain. 'She says: "We know that there is no time to lose in a pandemic," but what she means is: "We may have wasted time. But we will NEVER admit that",' the newspaper wrote. Meanwhile 'Brexit Brits continue to receive full supplies,' the paper added.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-media-savages-e...
New York Times: "E.U. Makes a Sudden and Embarrassing U-Turn on Vaccines"
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/30/world/europe/covid-vaccin...
The Telegraph: De Standaard, a Belgian newspaper, said the success of the Prime Minister’s move was a source of great frustration to the French, in particular, who are lagging far behind in their vaccine programme. It suggested that Brexiteers would take heart from that because Paris had regularly taken a hardline stance in the Brexit negotiations. The Flemish newspaper said that Mr Johnson liked to take risks and in this case, as opposed to in Brexit, the gambit had worked.
An El Mundo editorial accused the EU of a "failure" on vaccine procurement, citing a "lack of coordination between member states to articulate a homogeneous process" which is "ruining the prospect of achieving herd immunity after the summer"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/28/best-advertiseme...
Daniel Stelter, Manager Magazin: It is dawning on the German and European population that the political class has failed across the board in meeting the enormous economic and social challenges of the Corona crisis. It marks the accelerating decline of the EU. Everybody in the economic sphere now knows that whenever there is a problem at a production site in the EU, there is a risk of being hit with an export ban: vaccines today, biotech tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow what? This destruction of trust in the EU as a place of business (Standort EU) is all of a piece with its tendency towards over-regulation and planned-economy control. The gap between wish and reality in the EU is greater than ever. By failing to procure vaccines, the EU has validated Brexit and given all EU citizens an objective reason for euroscepticism.
https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/exp...
But yeah sure, it's a clown and everyone is laughing ... all the stuff I just quoted is fiction only happening in a political thriller.
Of course there will always be problems in the EU, but I don't see it breaking apart any time soon.