How can anyone think realistically about aliens in any way whatsoever? There's absolutely zero evidence of extraterrestrial life, let alone intelligence. Anyone can think whatever they please about aliens and that would be as real as what you think. We have zero clue about alien physiology, psychology, science, culture, technology, etc.
> I ask which is more realistic?
All of them. None. We can't know. It's a question about an unobserved phenomenon.
We have a hard data point in ourselves. We know life is possible. The only question is how common is it. Right now the evidence says "Rare".
Now the task is to figure out why it's rare instead of common, and exactly how rare it really is.
This means gathering data, forming theories, making predictions, and comparing expectations to new data.
This seems like perfectly reasonable science to me.
But can we put any stock into Avi's opinion on it, given that committing to the 'Oumuamua solar sail idea has been very lucrative for him, in the way of media attention, book deals, podcast appearances etc.? It is a little ironic to talk about other scientist's egos while promoting your own book.
At least GPS satelites actually serve some purpose.
I still feel like he's being a little brash in assuming Oumuamua is an alien vessel. I think it's possible, but likely there is another possibility that we haven't thought of.
And even if they do, perhaps studies have been done searching for spectra of industrial byproduct, but the results were “we couldn’t find anything in the survey data we looked at” and the researchers had a hard time publishing it. Or perhaps there’s a conclusion somewhere in the literature about imaging providing a reason why detecting such spectra with our current tech is unreliable and we need to wait 5-10 years.
Cuz like, come on! What scientist doesn’t want to find aliens?! Anyone who discovered the slightest dispositive proof of ET intelligent life would be on a one-way train to the Nobel prize, global adoration and fame, a lifetime salary on the lecture circuit, a named element on the periodic table and everyday people knowing their name for centuries. The incentives are totally there.
I like the spirit of Oumuamua's wager - treat it as if it is alien tech, even if it probably won't be. The journey to find out will push us in a desirable direction.
I'd rather be part of a society that tries to catch a weird asteroid on the off chance it's something truly amazing, than part of a society that doesn't care.
'Oumuamua didn't speed up at all. It slowed down. Just, infinitesimally less than it seems like it ought to have.
