Why scientists are worried about the coronavirus variant from Brazil (opens in new tab)

(npr.org)

47 pointsmike_h5y ago19 comments

19 comments

11 comments · 2 top-level

u678u5y ago· 5 in thread

It would be nice to know if the Brazil variant is more dangerous or not. The ideal case is a variant that gets more easily transmissible but less harmful - everyone could pass it on and become immune to the other strains.

guscost5y ago

That is not just the ideal case, it is the case supported by both historical precedent and theory: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896

> By far, the most widely studied trade-off involves transmission and virulence (Anderson and May, 1982; Frank, 1996; Alizon et al. 2009).

masonic5y ago

That paper is about parasites, not viruses.

1 more reply

ISL5y ago

The key point of this article is that the new variant is sufficiently unlike the original strain that it may be able to infect those who have already had the original strain.

If that is true, 2021 will be another memorable year.

timr5y ago

> may be able to infect those who have already had the original strain.

...the "may" in your response re-affirms the OP's question. We don't know yet. This is speculation.

u678u5y ago

> If that is true, 2021 will be another memorable year.

Eish, Dont say it!

timr5y ago· 4 in thread

> But for some scientists, the most worrying variant might be the newest one. A variant called P.1, which emerged in early December in Manaus, Brazil, and by mid-January had already caused a massive resurgence in cases across the city of 2 million people.

The blatant editorial tone here is off-putting. It's worth pointing out that the resurgence in Amazonas appears to be of about the same magnitude as the one in the winter, and is currently declining:

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+cases+manaus&oq=covid+...

I don't know why the news media can't simply report facts anymore.

vitorgrs5y ago

Nop. I'm from Brazil, and I can say that situation right now in Manaus is way worse.

To give you a notion, in 21 days, Manaus has more burials by Covid-19 than the whole of 2020

timr5y ago

Do you have a better source for the numbers here?

1 more reply

ISL5y ago

It sounds like the first peak managed to infect 75% of the population? If so, a second, similar, peak, at 1% case-fatality-rate is likely to case 20,000 deaths in the city alone.

timr5y ago

> It sounds like the first peak managed to infect 75% of the population? If so, a second, similar, peak, at 1% case-fatality-rate is likely to case 20,000 deaths in the city alone.

1) There's no way of knowing what percentage of the population has been infected.

2) You're assuming that this strain can re-infect the same people, which is speculation.

3) You're assuming that this strain will be just as fatal as the original strain after re-infection, which is speculation.

2 more replies

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19 comments

11 comments · 2 top-level

u678u5y ago· 5 in thread

guscost5y ago

That is not just the ideal case, it is the case supported by both historical precedent and theory: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4873896

> By far, the most widely studied trade-off involves transmission and virulence (Anderson and May, 1982; Frank, 1996; Alizon et al. 2009).

masonic5y ago

That paper is about parasites, not viruses.

1 more reply

ISL5y ago

The key point of this article is that the new variant is sufficiently unlike the original strain that it may be able to infect those who have already had the original strain.

If that is true, 2021 will be another memorable year.

timr5y ago

> may be able to infect those who have already had the original strain.

...the "may" in your response re-affirms the OP's question. We don't know yet. This is speculation.

u678u5y ago

> If that is true, 2021 will be another memorable year.

Eish, Dont say it!

timr5y ago· 4 in thread

The blatant editorial tone here is off-putting. It's worth pointing out that the resurgence in Amazonas appears to be of about the same magnitude as the one in the winter, and is currently declining:

https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+cases+manaus&oq=covid+...

I don't know why the news media can't simply report facts anymore.

vitorgrs5y ago

Nop. I'm from Brazil, and I can say that situation right now in Manaus is way worse.

To give you a notion, in 21 days, Manaus has more burials by Covid-19 than the whole of 2020

timr5y ago

Do you have a better source for the numbers here?

1 more reply

ISL5y ago

It sounds like the first peak managed to infect 75% of the population? If so, a second, similar, peak, at 1% case-fatality-rate is likely to case 20,000 deaths in the city alone.

timr5y ago

> It sounds like the first peak managed to infect 75% of the population? If so, a second, similar, peak, at 1% case-fatality-rate is likely to case 20,000 deaths in the city alone.

1) There's no way of knowing what percentage of the population has been infected.

2) You're assuming that this strain can re-infect the same people, which is speculation.

3) You're assuming that this strain will be just as fatal as the original strain after re-infection, which is speculation.

2 more replies

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