I would not count AMD out. They're competitive while being a node behind, and unlike Intel they've been able to maintain good cadence with node and architectural improvements.
Let's also not forget that the IO die on the desktop CPUs is at least a couple nodes behind, and is the bulk of the power consumption on the chip.
The Zen 3 APUs (e.g. 5800U/H) are going to be pretty competitive, and I think Zen 4 on 5nm will keep the pressure up.