They "think" they are experts at it. Yeah. If they were experts at predicting which ones would fail, they would simply buy shitloads of puts on xyz & wait it out instead of hedging themselves in case xyz doesn't default. Also, you give them too much credit when you use words like "technology infrastructure". I've been to many of them & the extent of their infrastructure is RAID & the extent of their technology is writing a for loop in VBA.